- GRI notices: $300-$500/FEU, effective July 1, from at least four major carriers
- Current LAX/LGB spot rates: $550-$650/FEU (Fair band)
- Projected post-GRI range if fully implemented: $850-$1,100/FEU (Expensive band)
- Increase magnitude relative to current rates: roughly 40-60%
- Origin-port and equipment-type variation noted in filing data
| Scenario | LAX/LGB 40HQ Rate (per FEU) | Band |
|---|---|---|
| Current (pre-GRI) | $550 - $650 | Fair |
| GRI partial hold (50%) | $700 - $900 | Fair to Expensive |
| GRI fully implemented | $850 - $1,100 | Expensive |
Rate filing data calibrated against independent field data shows the GRI notices are consistent with seasonal peak timing, and industry trade reporting confirms similar increases have been filed across multiple alliance loops simultaneously.
How much would rates rise if the GRI holds at full value?
A $400/FEU GRI applied to the current $550-$650 range would push rates to roughly $950-$1,050/FEU, placing the lane firmly in the Expensive band (above $650 for context against the current Fair ceiling). That represents a 40-60% increase over current pricing.
Do all carriers typically collect the full announced GRI amount?
Not always. GRI notices represent announced targets, and rate filing data shows actual collected increases often settle below the announced figure depending on space utilization and competitive pressure at the time the increase takes effect. Shippers should treat the $300-$500 range as a ceiling scenario rather than a guaranteed outcome.
What Shippers Should Do
- Book and gate in cargo before the July 1 effective date for any shipment with flexible departure timing, to lock pre-GRI rates.
- For volume that cannot move forward, budget for a 40-60% rate increase scenario in upcoming contract negotiations.
- Confirm whether existing service contracts include GRI pass-through protections or caps.
- Compare quoted post-GRI rates against the projected range above to identify carriers seeking above-market increases.