How long is the disruption expected to last?
DHL Global Forwarding's Middle East and Africa CEO told customers that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take at least four to six months to normalize once conditions allow vessels to resume transit, even after a formal reopening is announced. The conflict, which began February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched military action against Iran, has kept commercial shippers risk-averse well beyond any ceasefire announcement, since war-risk insurance and crew safety assessments lag behind diplomatic developments.
| Metric | Figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Share of global container fleet capacity affected | 10.7% | By TEU, per fleet capacity analysis |
| TEUs initially trapped in Persian Gulf | Up to 470,000 | Includes vessels unable to exit |
| Maersk vessels stranded in Gulf | 6 ships | Among multiple carriers affected |
| Estimated normalization timeline | 4-6 months | Per DHL Global Forwarding MEA leadership, post-reopening |
- The disruption has persisted for over three months with no confirmed reopening date as of this week
- Oil tankers and LNG carriers are expected to receive priority access once transit resumes, given their importance to global energy markets
- Container shipments and general cargo are likely to face longer delays than energy cargo during any phased reopening
Why does container capacity matter beyond the directly affected vessels?
Every TEU of capacity trapped or rerouted away from the Strait of Hormuz is capacity unavailable for other trade lanes, including transpacific and Asia-Europe services where carriers are already managing tight space during an early 2026 peak season. Fleet capacity removed from circulation for months, rather than weeks, compounds with other 2026 capacity pressures — new-build vessel delivery timing, blank sailings, and peak season frontloading — making overall global capacity planning materially harder for carriers and, by extension, rate stability harder for shippers to predict.
What Shippers Should Do
- If any portion of your supply chain routes through or near the Persian Gulf, confirm with your carrier or forwarder whether your cargo's routing has been diverted, and what the revised transit time estimate is — do not assume normal transit times apply.
- Build the 4-6 month normalization estimate into long-range capacity and rate planning rather than assuming a quick resolution once a ceasefire or reopening is announced; insurance and crew-safety lag typically extends real recovery well past the political announcement.
- For cargo with flexible origin options, evaluate alternative sourcing or routing that avoids Gulf-adjacent ports while the disruption persists, even at a near-term cost premium, given the unresolved timeline.
- Track capacity-driven rate movements on ANKPOST Pulse, since capacity removed by this disruption is a contributing factor to the early and aggressive 2026 peak season rate environment on unrelated trade lanes.