Why are rates rising twice in the same month?
The May 2026 US-China tariff truce opened a 90-day window that triggered a rush of frontloaded bookings, with importers moving cargo before the window narrows. That demand surge landed at the same time carriers had already cut capacity by 10-15% through blank sailings to support a mid-May general rate increase (GRI) push. The result is two compounding pressures — pulled-forward demand and reduced supply — hitting the same booking weeks.
| Lane | Early June | June 18 Update | Cumulative Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai → Los Angeles | $4,565/FEU (+31% WoW) | $5,142/FEU (+10% WoW) | ~+48% in three weeks |
| Shanghai → New York | $5,505/FEU (+20% WoW) | $6,769/FEU (+15% WoW) | ~+58% in three weeks |
- Transpacific eastbound capacity is reported full through mid-to-late June on multiple carrier services.
- Carriers are layering surcharges on top of base GRI increases to manage demand rather than adding capacity back.
- Additional rate pressure is expected ahead of further US tariff changes anticipated in July.
What happens when the frontloading window closes?
Frontloading pulls demand forward rather than creating new underlying demand, which means the current rate level is not necessarily a stable baseline. Once the truce window narrows and importers stop rushing bookings, carriers will face a choice between holding rates through continued blank sailings or releasing capacity back into a market with less urgent demand — a dynamic that has produced sharp rate corrections in past frontloading cycles.
What Shippers Should Do
- Treat the current $5,142-$6,769/FEU range as a moving target, not a quote to lock in budgets against — re-check rates weekly given the pace of change.
- If cargo must move in the next two to three weeks, expect continued increases and book early rather than waiting for a pullback that may not arrive before your ship date.
- For cargo with flexible timing, model the cost of waiting until after the truce window narrows against the risk that carriers hold rates via continued blank sailings.
- Confirm with your carrier or forwarder whether quoted rates already include the next BAF/GRI layer or whether it will be added separately at sailing.