How wide has the truckload-intermodal cost gap become?
The national load-to-truck ratio has widened further in recent weeks, with open market load postings up 65% compared to May 2025 and a 23% decline in open market capacity postings over the same period — a combination that signals both rising demand for available trucks and a shrinking pool of trucks willing to take that freight at current rates. With trucking capacity expected to stay constrained through summer produce season and into Q3, the rate gap between truckload and intermodal is unlikely to close quickly.
| Metric | Figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Truckload spot rate | $3.08/mile | Current national average |
| Intermodal spot rate | $1.61/mile | Current national average |
| Cost advantage for intermodal | ~48% | Truckload vs. intermodal per-mile cost |
| Open market load postings, YoY | +65% | Vs. May 2025 |
| Open market capacity postings, YoY | -23% | Vs. May 2025 |
- A 65% increase in load postings against a 23% decline in capacity postings represents one of the widest load-to-truck ratio swings reported in recent years
- The modal shift toward intermodal is being driven primarily by cost arbitrage rather than service preference, since intermodal transit times are typically longer than truckload
- Capacity constraints are expected to persist through Q3 2026, spanning both summer produce season and the early peak-season import surge already being reported on ocean lanes
Does this modal shift create new pressure points for shippers?
Shifting volume onto intermodal at this pace increases demand for rail-served distribution capacity and drayage at intermodal ramps, which can offset some of the line-haul savings if ramp dwell times and drayage availability don't scale with the added volume — a dynamic already being reported at some inland intermodal ramps facing elevated demand. Shippers converting truckload freight to intermodal purely to capture the 48% rate gap should budget for the added transit-time variability and ramp-side handling costs that come with the switch.
What Shippers Should Do
- For freight that can tolerate longer transit times, evaluate intermodal conversion now while the cost gap is near its widest — but model total landed cost including ramp drayage and dwell risk, not just the line-haul rate difference.
- If you must stay on truckload for time-sensitive freight, lock in committed capacity agreements before the produce-season capacity crunch deepens further into Q3.
- Track route guide performance closely this summer — a widening load-to-truck ratio typically means contracted carriers are more likely to reject tenders, pushing more freight into the spot market at a premium.
- Monitor ramp-specific dwell times on ANKPOST Pulse before committing newly converted intermodal volume to a specific ramp, since rapid modal-shift volume can quickly congest ramps that were previously running smoothly.